中国经济周期的福利成本差异性研究

A Study on the Differences in the Welfare Costs of China's Business Cycles

本文基于Lucas基准模型,采用中国1985￣2005年间的国家一级城乡居民消费数据、省一级居民消费数据、省一级城乡居民消费数据对中国经济周期福利成本的城乡间差异性、地区间差异性、地区内城乡间差异性进行定量分析,并且通过1952￣2005年间的国家一级居民消费数据实证分析中国经济周期福利成本的阶段差异性。定量研究结果显示:采用中国省一级的居民消费数据得到的中国经济周期福利成本,不仅大于国家一级居民消费数据估计的中国经济周期福利成本,而且远远大于Lucas(1987)的估计结果;中国经济周期的福利成本存在显著的城乡间差异性、地区间差异性、地区内城乡间差异性和阶段差异性。因此,中国政府在重视经济增长的同时,不但要关注经济波动,而且还要考虑经济波动的各种差异性。

Founded on the Lucas's theoretical model, and by the use of China's aggregate (both urban and rural) consumption data of 1985 to 2005, the province-level urban and rural consumption data, we have, in this article, made a quantitative analysis of the differences between cities and villages in the welfare costs of China's business cycles (TWCOCBC) and that of the differences between cities and villages within a region, and have, using the state-level residents' consumption data of 1952 to 2005, made a case study on the differences between periods in TWCOCBC. Our quantitative analysis indicates that TWCOCBC calculated through China's province-level data on residents' consumption is not only higher than TWCOCBC estimated by the use of the state-level data on residents' consumption, but also far higher than the result estimated by Lucas (1987), and that there exist obvious differences between cities and villages, disparities between regions, differences between cities and villages within a region and dissimilarities between periods. Therefore, while the Chinese government should attach importance to economic growth, it should not only pay close attention to economic fluctuations, but also consider various divergences in business cycles.