中国近海石油储量增长趋势预测

Growth Trend Prediction of Oil Reserves in Offshore China

油气储量增长趋势预测对于油气战略规划具有重要意义,预测结果的合理性主要取决于预测方法或模型的适用性和对盆地的石油地质条件的认识程度。在对现有储量增长趋势预测方法改进和集成的基础上,系统分析了中国近海石油储量增长趋势的内、外因影响因素,其中内因包括盆地类型、油气地质条件和地理环境,外因包括勘探程度、勘探开发投入、技术条件、对外合作政策及管理理念。最后对中国近海石油储量增长趋势进行了预测,获得了比较合理的预测结果。

Prediction ofoil reserves growth trend is of great significance to programming ofoil and gas strategies.Whether the prediction results are rational or not depends on the adaptability of prediction methods or models and the perception of petroleum geologic conditions of the basin.Based on improving the methods for predicting current reserves growth trend,the internal and external factors influencing the growth trend of oil reserves in offshore China are systematically analyzed.The internal factors consist of the basin types,the oil and gas geologic conditions,and the geological environment,while the external factors include the exploration degree,the invest put in exploration and development,the technological conditions,the foreign cooperation policies,and the management idea.At the end of the paper,the growth trend of oil reserves in offshore China is predicted and relatively rational prediction results are obtained.