中国省际SO_2排放的环境学习曲线及减排潜力

Environment Learning Curve and Emission Reducing Potential of SO_2 Emission in China

基于2005年SO2排放量,对人均SO2排放量和万元产值SO2排放量的区域分布格局及其成因进行了定量分析;同时,基于1992—2005年SO2排放量和经济发展数据,建立了28个省区万元产值SO2排放量随人均GDP变化的环境学习曲线;并以所建立的环境学习曲线为依据,分析了1992,1995,2000和2005年4个时段的环境负荷变化及SO2的减排潜力.结果表明:经济发展水平越高的地区,万元产值SO2排放的负荷越小,万元产值SO2减排的潜力越小;反之,经济发展水平越低的地区,万元产值SO2排放的负荷越大,万元产值SO2减排的潜力越大.

Based on SO2 emissions data of 2005, the area distribution patterns of two indexes （SO2 emission per capita and SO2 emissions per unit production value） as well as their reasons were quantitatively analyzed. Then, on the basis of SO2 emissions and economic development data from 1992 to 2005, environment learning curve of SOa emission per ten thousand Yuan production value and GDP per capita were built in 28 provinces, and the change of SO2 emission following environment protecting consciousness enhancing and reducing emission technology advancing were discovered. According to the environment learning curve of SO2 emission, change of environment burden in four periods （1992, 1995, 2000 and 2005） and emission reducing potential of SO2 in this phase were analyzed. The results show that in some provinces where the level of economic development is higher, environment burthen of SO2 emission is lower and emission reducing potential of SO2 is smaller; conversely, in other provinces where the level of economic is lower, environment burthen of SO2 emission is higher and emission reducing potential of SO2 is bigger.