转型背景下政策创新的扩散与有限理性学习

The Diffusion of Policy Innovation and Bounded-Rational Learning:A Empirical Study in the Context of Transition

关于政策创新扩散的已有文献都是基于美国的政策生态,且以理性选择为基本假定。由于在转型时期存在严重的信息不完全等问题,有限理性假设更为适用。面临预期不确定、决策周期缩短和政府间竞争压力加大等约束,创新扩散表现出与经济社会因素关联度不高、邻近效应明显以及政治周期效应不明显等特征。以政府信息公开规定和招商引资奖励两项政策作为实证案例,本文认为我国政策创新的扩散是一个有限理性的学习过程。

Most of literature on the diffusion of policy innovation is based on American policy context and theoretical supposition of rational choice. But in the period of transition, bounded-rationality is more suitable because of serious information asymmetry. Facing uncertain expectation, shorting cycle of decision, strong competition between inter-governments and other restrained conditions, the diffusion of policy innovation displays obviously neighborhood effect, but the degree of connection with social-economic factors is not high and the effect of political cycle is not obvious. Based on two empirical cases, regulation of governmental information disclosure and awarding policy for attracting investment, this paper argues that the diffusion of policy innovation in present China is a process of bounded-rational learning.