中国人力资本结构与经济结构互动效应实证研究--1952-2004年

An Empirical Research on the Reciprocity Effects between Human Capital Structure and Economic Structure: from1952-2004

用多元统计分析及脉冲响应函数分析方法,对我国人力资本结构与经济结构的互动过程进行实证研究。结果表明,人力资本结构对经济产业发展的拉动效应显著,城市化水平、人均收入、外商投资等对人力资本尤其是高级人力资本冲击的反应显著且持续时期长;进一步研究表明,人力资本对第三产业发展贡献率较小,但其在发挥效力空间大,农业生产的稳定需稳定的人力资本作为支撑。据此,提出了相应政策建议。

The paper conducts an empirical research on the reciprocity effects between the human capital structure and economic structure by adopting the method of multi-component statistical analysis and impulse response function analysis. The research finds that the human capital structure has a remarkable effect on the economic structure. Meanwhile, the human capital structure, especially the advanced human capital structure significantly and sustainably influences the level of urbanization, per capita incomes and FDI etc. A further research shows that human capital＇s contribution to the tertiary industry is limit but it can be developed further in the future. What＇s more, it shows that the stability of agriculture lies in the sustainable support from human capital. On the basis of the analysis, this paper proposes corresponding policies and suggestions.