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中国经济增长中的结构平滑转移 被引量：1

Smooth Transitions in Chinese Economic Growth
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摘要 本文应用考虑结构平滑转移的单位根检验方法,对中国22个主要的宏观经济变量进行了检验,结果表明其中半数能够拒绝单位根假设,可以用非线性确定趋势过程加以描述。除就业人员序列外,其余变量均不具有显著的非对称调整特征。实际GDP序列在改革开放初期发生了一次结构渐变,稳态增长率由原来的4.4%逐步提高到7.2%,标志着我国经济整体上已经平稳过渡到了一个更高的发展阶段。 This paper applies the unit root test allowing for smooth transition to investigate the dynamic path of 22 Chinese macroeconomic variables. The results show that half of them can reject the unit root hypothesis, providing evidence for non-linear deterministic trend. Asymmetric adjustment is only found in the employment series. Real GDP experienced a smooth transition in the early period of the reform. China＇s steady-state growth rate rose gradually from 4.4% to 7.2%, which means that Chinese economy has smoothly evolved into a new stage.
作者 栾惠德
机构地区 南开大学经济学院数量经济研究所
出处 《南方经济》 CSSCI 北大核心 2008年第4期3-11,共9页 South China Journal of Economics
基金 南开大学亚洲研究中心课题"经济计量模型的稳定性研究"成果之一
关键词 平滑转移 结构变动 经济增长 Smooth Transition Structural Change Economic Growth
分类号 F061.2 [经济管理—政治经济学] F224.0 [经济管理—国民经济]
  • 相关文献

参考文献14

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二级参考文献34

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共引文献112

同被引文献24

  • 1Banerjee A. , Lumsdaine R. L, Stock J. H. , 1992, Recursiveand Sequential Tests of the Unit-root and Trend-break Hypothesis: Theory and International Evidence [J], Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 10 (3), 271-287.
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  • 7Harvey D.I. , Leybourne S.J., Xiao, B, 2008, A Powerful Test forLinearity When the Order of Integration is Unknown [J], Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics, 12 (3), 2.
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  • 9Lee J. , Strazicich M. , 2003, Minimum Lagrange Multiplier Unit Root Test zeith Two Structural Breaks [J], Review of Economics and Statisties, 85 (4), 1082-1089.
  • 10Leybourne S , Newbold P. , Vougas D. , 1998, UnitRoots and Smooth Transitions [J], Journal of Time Series Analysis, 19 (1), 83-97.

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二级引证文献1

南方经济
2008年 第4期

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