我国石油行业需求影响因素动态计量分析

The Dynamic Econometric Analysis of the Influence of Demand Factors on China Oil Industry

石油加工及炼焦业、化学原料及化学制品制造业这两个下游行业带给石油行业正向的冲击力度较大,而交通运输设备制造业、化学纤维制造业带给石油行业正向的冲击力度比较小;化学原料及化学制品制造业对石油行业的贡献率最大且逐渐递增;石油加工及炼焦业对石油行业的贡献率也比较大,并逐渐趋于平稳;化学纤维制造业对石油行业的贡献率比较小;交通运输设备制造业对石油行业的贡献率最小。因此,应根据各下游产业的产品需求变化情况制定产业政策和产业规划,调整石油行业的产业结构。

This paper is devoted to analyze downstream oil industries＇ impulse and contribution to oil industry, by adopting VAR model and impulse response function and variance decomposition method. The results revealed that coke, petroleum products industry and chemical raw materials and chemical products industry will greater positive im- pulse to oil industry than transportation equipment manufacturing and chemical fiber manufacturing. Chemical raw ma- terials and chemical products manufacturing industry has the greatest contribution to oil industry, and the contribution is on the increase; coke and petroleum products industry has greater contribution to the industry, and the contribution will gradually stabilized; chemical fiber manufacturing has less contribution to the industry; the transportation equipment manufacturing has the least contribution to oil industry. On the basis of these results, we concluded that we should constitute industrial policies and industrial planning, adjust industrial structure of the oil industry that is based on the downstream oil industries demand for the produce of the oil industry.