汇率理论的新进展和非线性态势研究

New Discovery on Exchange Rate Based on Nonlinear Tendency

汇率理论及其决定因素的研究一直是各国政府货币政策制定部门和相关国际贸易企业关注的焦点问题。通过对汇率理论的非一致性发现的探讨,以及非线性模型的刻画,证实了我国汇率走势也存在均值回复的非对称现象,继而提出了合理利用这种特点对我国现行汇率进行政策性国际收支变动调整的政策建议,以此规避外汇风险。

Research on exchange rate theory and its decisive factors have always been the focus of monetary-policymaking department and international trade enterprises. By studying exchange rate and nonlinear model, we find that exchange rate tendency is nonsymmetrical. We should rationally utilize the feature to adjust present exchange rate to avoid exchange risk.