外部冲击与中国的通货膨胀

External Shocks and China's Inflation

本文在充分考察全球流动性的转化、国际大宗商品价格的传导、人民币汇率升值的紧缩效应、国际利率的影响以及价格扭曲效应为外部冲击所放大等典型化事实基础上,应用扩展的菲利普斯曲线方程和VAR模型对外部冲击影响国内通胀进行了经验研究。计量结果表明:短期内,国际食品价格是导致国内物价上涨的主要因素;国际原油价格对国内物价的影响在中长期逐步上升;人民币升值抑通胀的效果要经过一段时间才能体现出来;国际利率变化对国内物价有影响;全球流动性的转化因央行的有效对冲对物价的直接影响并不明显。综合而言,外部冲击只是导致通胀的因素之一,而GDP增长率仍是影响物价的最主要因素。因此,防止经济增长过快,调整要素价格抑制投资需求膨胀,以及提高汇率机制弹性以增强货币政策独立性并使之成为应对外部冲击的第一道防线,将是治理中国通胀的根本途径。

Our paper firstly fully examines the stylized facts of the translation of global liquidity, transmission of international commodity price, the contractionary effects of RMB appreciation, and the factor price distortion enhanced by the external shocks, and then uses the extension of Phillips Curve and VAR model to test the impacts of external shocks on domestic inflation. The regression results indicate that ： in the short run, world food price is the main reason for domestic inflation ; the influence of world oil price on inflation will take effect in the median-to-long run; the RMB appreciation is contractionary through a relatively long time ; world interest rate has certain impact on domestic price ; and the translation of global liquidity has no significant effects on domestic price due mainly to the successful sterilization. In sum, GDP is still the root cause of inflation and the external shocks are just part of the reasons. Therefore, keeping the moderate rather than excessively fast growth rate, adjusting the distorted fact price in order to control the investment demand, increasing the flexibility of exchange rate regime for the independent monetary policy as the first line of defense against external shocks would be the fundamentals to curb inflation.