摘要
通过调查全国大中型商业建筑的特大火灾案例,建立控制火灾蔓延系统模型进行分析。通过采用Bayes方法,克服了火灾数据缺乏,而且又难以进行大量重复试验的困难,统计出各基本事件发生概率的条件期望估计与方差。通过系统故障树分析,得出我国大中型商业建筑在火灾发生情况下控制火灾蔓延失败的概率,并进行误差传播分析。最后通过系统决策,为防治火灾蔓延提供依据。
By systematic investigation and study of fire cases that happened in big and middle-scale commercial constructions,a system model is built up.Expected value and square deviation of probability of basical events are calculated by using Bayes method which can overcome the difficulty of lacking in fire data and hard making fire experiences repeated.Then the failure probability of controlling over fire extension is concluded from fault tree analysis.And error propagation analysis of the fault tree is made.On the basis of the systematic strategic decision,it will provide basis for preventing the fire extension.
出处
《建筑科学》
北大核心
2008年第5期64-67,87,共5页
Building Science
关键词
商业建筑
火灾蔓延
风险评估
BAYES方法
系统决策
commercial building
fire extension
risk assessment
Bayes method
systematic strategic decision
