谁是铜价的推高者?

WHO IS PROMOTING THE COPPER PRICE?

2008年初以来,在库存减少、美元走软以及资金推动下,国际铜价气势如虹强劲上扬,3月6日触及8820美元/吨,再创历史新高。在获利回吐的压力下迅速回调,轻探8000美元/吨位置后强劲反弹,再度逼近历史高点。在全球通胀的背景下,基本面的紧张加上资金的推动使铜价一路猛涨,处于历史高价区。是什么维持铜价仍然在高峰区间?铜下一步是再度挑战高点,还是在旺季支撑过后大幅下挫?

Since 2003, the international copper price has maintained a bull market tendency and now is still keeping a high-price status. The fundamental factor to support the high copper price is the short supply of copper concentrates. According to an investigation made by the Canadian Metal Strategy Research Group, over the past decade 300 million dollars have been invested in copper mine prospecting worldwide. Although this volume is more than the investment in the prospecting for other metals, the output of copper ore has not substantially increased. In 2006, the supply shortage of copper concentrates was 387,000 tons worldwide. In 2007, the supply shortage was approximately 280,000 tons. First, since few largesized copper mines have been found in recent years, the volume of copper ore mined will not be increased. Second, frequent strikes and accidents affect the increase of output of copper production.