对非良性经济泡沫基础承受力的探析

On Fundamental Bearing Ability to Non-benign Economic Bubbles

基础承受力是指经济体自身所拥有的承受非良性经济泡沫的能力,是一国或地区经济体化解经济泡沫的前提和基础。通过对经济泡沫基础承受力的作用机制和路径的阐释,并在经济增长的大背景下深入剖析了我国所具有的对经济泡沫的基础承受力及其影响因素,同时与日本20世纪80、90年代经济泡沫的情形进行了比较。我们的结论是:经济泡沫的基础承受力取决于经济体的基本面和自身的再生能力,但归根到底决定于可以直接支持经济泡沫的有效财富增量的变化;对于股市泡沫,除了有效财富增量之外,上市公司业绩是基础承受力的另一来源;在经济增长的前提下,中国的金字塔型财富分布结构更有利于承受和化解经济泡沫。

The fundamental bearing ability,a kind of competence that can endure non-benign economic bubbles, is the precondition and basis of resolving economic bubbles. By comparing with the bubbles that happened in Japan during 1980s and 1990s, this paper analyzes current economic bubbles in China and makes a conclusion that the fundamental bearing ability to the economic bubbles is decided by economic elementary factors and reborn capacity. As for stock bubbles, the performance of listed companies is quite important. Given China's fast growth, its pyramid-type-structure of wealth distribution is more beneficial to endure and resolve economic bubbles.