阿拉善荒漠地区近50年气候变化的多时间尺度分析

Multi-time Scale Analysis of Climate Change in Desert Areas of Alashan During 1961-2005

利用阿拉善地区1961-2005年的气温、降水实测资料,分析了不同时间尺度下年平均气温、年降水量序列变化的周期和突变点,揭示了阿拉善地区近50 a气候变化的多时间尺度特征,并根据主周期对未来气温和降水变化进行预测。结果表明:阿拉善地区的气温在20世纪80年代开始大幅度上升,突变点在1986年。80-90年代降水量很少,为干旱期,年降水量的突变点为1980年。根据气温和降水小波变换的主周期预测:未来阿拉善地区的气温可能升高,降水可能减少,即气候有暖干化的趋势。

Based on temperature and precipitation data of 1961 -2005, the multi-time scales characteristics of climate variation in the Alashan Region was analyzed by using Mexican Hat wavelet analysis. The periodic oscillation of the annual mean temperature and precipitation variation and the points of abrupt change at different time scales along the time series were discovered. According to the main periods, the trend of climate variation in the future was also estimated. The results indicated that the air temperature increased in the 1980s, and the point of abrupt change occurred in 1986. The drought period was from the 1980s to the 1990s with very little precipitation and the point of abrupt change was in middle 1980s. Based on the main period in the Alaskan Region, it was estimated,that the air temperature had an increasing trend, but the precipitation had a decreasing trend, namely the climate in Alaskan region in the future became warmer and drier.