天水桃产量对气候变化的响应

Responses of Peach Yields to Climate Change in Tianshui

应用1981-2005年天水桃树物候、产量资料及1961-2005年气象资料,统计分析得出,影响甘肃天水桃生长的主要气象因子为4月上-中旬最低气温、7-8月降水量及8月日照百分率。通过对这些气象因子45 a的变化特征分析得出,气候变干变暖的趋势导致当地桃树物候普遍提前;初春冻害增多,使得桃种植的风险加大;7-8月降水变化总体减少的趋势有利于果实成熟;8月日照百分率缓慢下降的趋势使得果实成熟期日照不足,对品质和产量有不利影响。

Based on the data of peach phenology and the yield in 1981 -2004 and meteorological data in 1961 -2005 ,the responses of climate change on peach growth were statistically analyzed. The results indicated that the main meteorological factors influencing peach growth were the minimum temperature from the first to the second ten days of April, the precipitation in July and August and the sunshine percentage in August. By the analysis of the characteristics of climate factors for the last 45 years, it was concluded that the warmer and drier climate resulted in the ad- vance of the phonological period of the peach. With the increase of the freeze damage in the early spring, the planting risk of the peach increased. The decreased trend of the precipitation in July and August was favorable to the maturity of the peach, while the decreased trend of the sunshine percentage was not favorable to the peach fruit yield and quality.