我国货币政策传导机制有效性研究：条件与结论

China's Monetary Policy Transmission Mechanism:Conditions and Conclusions

对几种货币政策传导机制的利用是否有效,取决于市场失衡的程度与开放的程度以及经济发展不同时期的机遇。目前我国新兴市场资金流动与各市场间的联系主要受资产价格传导机制作用的引导,而不是利率传导。人民币升值带来的机遇并非仅发生在商品市场,更发生在资本市场,汇率传导机制的作用虽然影响了出口,但是目前却更有利于资本输出下的海外收购与兼并,从而降低了通货膨胀传递下商品市场的投资成本。

The effectiveness of several different monetary policy transmission mechanisms depends on the degree of market imbalance, the degree of openness and economic development opportunities in different periods. In an emerging market like China, the capital flow among different markets is guided mainly by asset price rather than by interest rate. RMB appreciation, despite its negative effects on exports, is not only opportunities for both the goods market and the capital market, but also conductive to capital outflows for overseas mergers and acquisitions, thereby reducing the investment cost in goods market under inflation contagion.