我国汇率制度变化与贸易发展关系的历史分析

China's changing exchange-rate regime and its trade development: A historical analysis

文章回顾了自上世纪80年代以来各阶段人民币汇率制度的特征,探讨了各时期汇率变动对进出口影响效应的有效性,揭示了影响贸易变化的实际因素,指出名义汇率可能与进出口关系并不密切,影响贸易的根本问题还在于国内外产品价差、企业竞争力、经济环境、宏观政策等因素,也不能把汇率政策理解为单一地调整名义汇率。

With a review of the characteristics of China＇s foreign exchange regimes in varying stages since the 1980s, this paper discusses the impact of the changes in the exchange rate on the country＇s imports and exports, and shows the real factors that influence trade. The author concludes that nominal exchange rate may have little impact on imports and exports and that the ultimate fuel that drives trade are price gap between home and abroad, corporate competitiveness, economic environment and macro policy. Therefore, exchange rate policy should not be considered as merely adjusting the nominal exchange rate.