中国产业结构优化升级的测度和比较分析

Comparative Analysis on the Measuring of Industrial Structure Optimization and Upgrading in China

产业结构优化升级包括结构高度化和合理化两方面。准确测度高度化水平和合理化程度能为产业结构优化升级过程中的一系列制度变革和政策调整提供依据。从分析产业结构优化升级(高度化和合理化)的机制及其与经济增长(非均衡增长和均衡增长)的关系入手,定义理想情况下产业结构优化升级的最优路径。在此基础上,建立一套基于静态投入产出模型的产业结构优化升级测度方法,并利用1997年、2002年和2005年全国投入产出表提供的数据具体测度这一时期中国产业结构的高度化水平和合理化程度,对产业结构优化升级的趋势进行分析。结果表明,这一时期中国产业结构的整体高度化水平和合理化程度出现先提高后降低的趋势,各产业的实际情况与理想情况仍然存在不同程度的偏差。

Industrial structure change contains structural upgrade and optimization, measuring them exactly can help the system reform and policy adjustment during the process of industrial structure change. According to the analysis of the mechanism on industrial structure optimization and the relationship between industrial structure change and economic growth, this paper obtained the optimum path of industrial structure change. On the basis of above, a measuring model of industrial structure optimization based on input-output analysis is established. Finally, the data provided by the national input-output table 2005,2002 and 1997 are used for the empirical research. The results show that Chinese industrial structure changed a little more optimized and advanced in first period, and descend in the next period, while the actual behavior of almost industries are different from the ideal condition.