中国开放条件下货币政策操作规则的实证检验

China's Practical Trials with the Rules Governing Operation of Monetary Policy as China Opens Wider to the Outside World

从1994～2006年的季度数据来看,中国货币政策操作一直遵从McCallum规则,Taylor规则不适合中国国情。这意味着,如果中国经济结构不发生大的变化,就可以根据历史数据回归得到的McCallum规则的各种参数和通胀缺口、实际汇率、货币乘数、货币流通速度等变量的预期变化测算出合理的基础货币增长率,并将为调控基础货币供给提供重要参照。

On the basis of quarterly data from 1994 to 2006, we can see that in the implementation of monetary policy China has always followed McCallum＇s rule and that Taylor＇s rule was not applicable to conditions in China. This means that if China＇s economic structure does not change significantly, the various parameters obtained from applying McCallum＇s rule to historical data and calculated predictions of changes in such things as the inflationary gap, actual exchange rate, monetary multiplier and velocity of money circulation can be used as the basis for a reasonable growth rate for the basic money supply and an important parameter for regulating the basic money supply.