财政支出与经济增长关系研究——基于中国1978～2005年数据的验证

A Study on the Relationship between Government Expenditure and Economic Growth——An Analysis Based on Chinese Time Series (1978～2005)

本文利用1978～2005年时间序列数据,计量检验了瓦格纳定律,并从财政支出功能性质分类角度研究我国财政支出与经济增长的关系。结果表明,瓦格纳定律在中国无法得到印证;经济建设支出、社会文教支出和国防支出对人均GNP都有正向的影响,且同等数量的社会文教支出比经济建设支出对经济增长影响更大,行政管理支出对人均GNP的影响微乎其微。

This article utilizes Chinese time series （ 1978 - 2005） to examine the Wagner＇ s law with econometric methods. Furthermore, studtes on the relationship between government expenditure and economic growth from the perspective of government expenditure by function. We conclude that no evidence supports the Wagner＇s law in China. The economic construction, social, cultural and educational development, and national defense expenditure have positive effects on per capita GNP. The social, cultural and educational development expenditure has greater impact on economic growth than the economic construction expenditure has in the same quantity. But the administrative expenses have no effect on per capita GNP.