不等时距灰色模型的边坡位移预测及软件化

Predication and calculational software for slope displacement of unequal interval gray model

针对灰色理论传统的等时距GM(1,1)模型存在不能应用于工程实际中常常存在的非等时距的监测时序问题,建立了不等时距的灰色GM(1,1)边坡位移预测模型。鉴于模型建立及应用中的计算比较烦琐,将模型编制成应用软件,支持输入少量历史监测数据预测指定时间的边坡位移。通过实例利用应用软件对边坡位移进行了预测,实际证明其拟合精度较好,预测结果正确可靠,能够反映边坡位移的客观存在与发展态势,且提高了效率,便于实际工程应用。

The traditional model of equal interval gray system GM （1, 1） is not often applied in actual projects due to unequal interval monitor data. Thus, an unequal interval gray model for slope displacement＇s predication was established. However, its work, including the calculation of the model＇s establishment and its application, was too complicated. In order to deal with this problem, the model was written as computational software which can support input of former monitor data and predict side slope displacement at some specified time. A real example demonstrated that the fitting precision of the software was high and the prediction reliable. The software can predict well the slope displacement tendency. This model increases practical project efficiency and is easy to use.