“3S”技术在达乌尔黄鼠疫源地鼠疫监测中应用

The application for new technical to use in plague surveillance of S.dauricus focus

目的为实时、动态掌握鼠疫监测的相关信息，及时发现疫情、处理疫情，提高鼠疫监测工作科技含量，把“3s”先进技术引入到鼠疫监测工作中。方法用GIS软件，通过数字化仪输入图层，建成图层集。用Microsoft Office Excel表格建立鼠疫相关数据库。用SAS软件建立前瞻性预测预报数学模型。结果建成达乌尔黄鼠疫源地鼠疫相关数据库；建成达乌尔黄鼠疫源地多个图层集；建成达乌尔黄鼠疫源地预测预报数学模型；达乌尔黄鼠疫源地现场工作中应用：预测2006-2008年每年通榆境内黄鼠数量30-37万只左右；2006-2008年通榆没有发生鼠疫流行的可能；指出了设置鼠疫监测点的最佳地点。结论应用GIS、GPS建立一套完整的可视开发界面的管理系统和前瞻性预测预报数学模型，经达乌尔黄鼠鼠疫疫源地现场应用，对鼠疫监测、防治等工作具有重要指导意义，具有较大的开发和利用潜能，可在国内其它各类鼠疫疫源地内推广应用。

Obiective To lead into 3S advanced technical into plague surveillance in time and trend to master related information of plague surveillance and to find and deal with epidemic diseases and improve contents of plague surveillance in science and technology. Methods Inputting draft layers and making a collection of draft layers with instruments by GIS software . Results Having built related TongYu data rooms of plague; Having built more collections of draft layers; Having built forecast maths models; Having applied in the spot of S. dauricus. Having forecasted amounts of S. dauricus 300 000 to 370 000 or so within the boundaries of in 2006 to2008 every year. There wont take place plague in TongYu in 2006 to 2008. Having pointed out the best place to set up surveillance spots on plague. Conclusions Having built series of complete administration systems and ahead forecast maths models and it has important guiding significance and has larger development and useful value for the work of plague surveillance and control by the application of work site of S. dauricus plague focus, and it can be popularized and used in all kinds of plague focus in home.