三江平原湿地区域可持续发展人口承载量计算

Calculation of Population Carrying Capacity on Wetland Regional Sustainable Development in Sanjiang Plain

以湿地生态区域作为整体系统来研究,结合三江平原区域实际情况,综合考虑区域的经济、社会、资源、生态环境等重要因素,建立了区域可持续发展的人口承载力综合分析模型体系。根据人口承载力模型体系,在参考"三步走"发展战略、中华人民共和国国民经济和社会发展第十一个五年(2006～2010年)规划纲要,对区域的可持续发展状态指标总量进行系统预测(按时间序列),拟定了两个承载质量标准,分别为小康水平、富裕水平以及相应的指标阈值,运用主成分分析法测算了三江平原湿地区域五城市人口承载能力,为区域可持续发展提供决策支持。

The eco-region of wetland was studied from its integrated system. According to the actual situation of the Sanjiang Region, the important factor was synthetically considered on the regional, economic, society, resources and ecological environment etc. The meta-analysis model system was established about population carrying capacity of the regional sustainable development. Base on the model, referencing ＂three-run on foot＂ development strategy and the 11th Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development of the People＇s Republic of China （2006-2010 years）, the index total amount of the regional sustainable development was forecasted （according to time series）. Two standards of carrying capacity quality and their index threshold value were drawn, two standards were the relatively comfortable life level and the wealthy level. The five city population carrying capacity were calculated by the principal components analysis method on Sanjiang Plain wetland region. That provided the support of the policy decision for regional sustainable development.