我国短期国际资本流动的影响因素——基于1994—2007年的实证研究

The factors influencing short-term international capital flow in China——An empirical study based on the data of 1994-2007

在对相关国际资本流动理论和研究进行回顾的基础之上,本文构建了影响我国国际资本流动的理论模型,并对1994—2007年我国国际资本流动进行协整和Granger因果关系检验。结论表明,良好的宏观经济态势,人民币汇率以及中外真实利率差异与我国国际资本流动之间存在协整关系,是国际资本流入的Granger原因。因此,本文建议应该稳定人民币升值预期以减缓国际资本大规模的流入,同时进行适当的制度安排引导国际资本的流出。

This paper estimates the scale of short - term international capital flow in China with the Non - trade and Non - FDI international capital flow statistics range. Based on review of related international capital flow theories and researches, this paper sets up a theoretical model for analyzing the factors influencing China＇ s short- term international capital flow, and makes co- integration analysis and Granger - Causality test by using the data from 1994 to 2007. The results show that there is a co - integration relation among good c condition, RMB exchange rate, the real interest rate difference between China and other countries in the world, and short - term international capital flow in China. The relation is the Granger- Causalities for international capital inflow. Therefore, the article suggests that we should stabilize RMB appreciation expectation, slow the pace of massive international capital inflow, and make appropriate institutional arrangements to guide its outflow.