摘要
本文在对资产净值、信贷扩张与投资支出关系进行理论分析的基础上,运用Granger因果检验、VAR模型等方法实证分析了资产价格波动与我国信贷的关系,结果发现,房价变动率对我国贷款变动率有显著的正向影响,说明存在房价影响投资的资产负债表渠道。文章最后提出政策当局应注意资产价格波动对企业净值和银行信贷的影响,尤其要避免房价暴跌带来的"金融加速器"效应及随之而来的金融风险。
We make a theoretical analysis of the relationship among net asset value, credit expansion and investment spending. Then we apply Granger causality test and VAR model in the empirical analysis of the relation between asset price volatility and China＇ s credit. The results show that the change rate of house price has a notably positive impact on the change rate of loan, which indicates that house price influences investment through balance sheet. Finally, the article points out that the authorities should pay attention to the influence of asset price volatility on the net value of enterprises and bank credit. Especially, we should prevent the ＂financial accelerator＂ effects brought about by house price in landslide as well as the financial risk followed.
出处
《财经科学》
CSSCI
北大核心
2008年第6期72-79,共8页
Finance & Economics
基金
国家社会科学基金项目(07XJY037)
重庆市软科学研究项目(CSTC,2007EB9001)的阶段性成果
关键词
资产净值
资产价格
信贷
投资
实证分析
Net asset value
Asset prices
credit
Investment
Empirical analysis
