公路沥青路面预养护多层次模糊决策模型

Multi-hierarchy Fuzzy Decision-making Model for PPM Treatment Selection of Highway Asphalt Pavement

为解决多因素影响下公路沥青路面预养护对策选择问题,在全面分析各项影响因素和技术对策特点的基础上,综合应用层次分析法、专家打分法和模糊数学理论,建立了预养护对策多层次模糊决策模型:首先确立决策指标的层次结构,通过层次分析法确定了准则层和指标层各个因素的权重赋值;采用专家打分法,建立了方案层个体评判指标的特征矩阵,由模糊数学运算得到各个方案的综合排序,以此确定最佳预养护措施。所建立的决策模型综合考虑了预养护对策的技术、经济和环境等因素的影响,通过层次划分与模糊运算,将定性指标量化,从而具有较高的准确性。结合上海市浦星公路预养护工程进行的实例研究证明了该模型的合理性与有效性。研究成果可为沥青路面预养护决策提供科学的依据。

The decision making method for selecting pavement preventive maintenance （PPM） treatment need to consider multiple factors such as cost, use life and influence caused by construction.Using analytic hierarchy theory, Delfei method and fuzzy mathematics, a innovative model of multi-hierarchy fuzzy decision was established based on analyzing factors which affect selecting PPM treatment of highway asphalt pavement.The hierarchy of decision-making index system was put forward firstly, and then the weight of each indicator in rule layer and index layer was assigned by using the analytic hierarchy process. The character matrix of judgment indices for project layer was set up by using Delfei method subsequently. The optimal preventive maintenance treatment was determined by the aid of the synthetically order of scenarios calculated by the fuzzy mathematics. The factors of technique, economy and environment were integrated into the model by quantifying qualitative factors, so comparing to conventional method, it has distinguished veracity. A case study was done and the rationality and availabihty of the model was also demonstrated. The result provides decision makers with a scientific support in their decision-making.