我国公路营运汽车污染物排放量总量及预测

Estimation and Forecast of For-hire Motor Vehicle Emission Volume

机动车污染物的排放量预测是研究降低机动车排放污染对策和专项行动的基础。我国公路营运汽车污染物排放量已经成为机动车污染物排放中不可忽视的组成部分。文章通过对影响营运汽车污染物排放水平的主要因素分析,根据国家环保总局的机动车排放因子的试验测算结果,推算营运汽车排放因子;然后对我国公路营运汽车保有量、年均行驶里程进行的现状分析、建模、计算和趋势预测,最后运用机动车污染物年排放量模型,计算出未来15年内主要特征年的污染物排放总量。根据对以上计算和预测结果分析可知,未来10多年间,营运汽车污染物排放总量呈下降趋势。

A model for estimation and forecast of emission volume of the for-hire motor vehicles in China was presented, including the estimation method and procedures. The current status and the development trend of the forhire motor vehicle population, the annual average operation mileage of each type of the motor vehicles and the main factors affecting the pollutant emissions were analyzed and estimated. Then the total for-hire motor vehicle emission volume in the next 15 years was calculated by using the model and the emission factors for each type of the motor vehicles issued by the State Environmental Protection Administration from the experiment results. The calculation based forecast shows that the total for-hire motor vehicle emission volume will be reduced in the future decade and more.