区域泥石流短临预报及其应用--基于多普勒天气雷达技术的预报系统

Imminent and short-term forecast of regional debris flow and its application:a forecasting system based on Doppler weather radar technology

基于先进的多普勒天气雷达探测技术,直接获取多种类型的降水产品,以模糊数学为基础,利用可拓学原理,建立了多层嵌套式泥石流预报可拓模型。模型根据研究区泥石流发生条件的不同,将临界雨量划分成不同的等级范围,确定泥石流发生的概率大小。将该泥石流预报方法应用到四川省凉山州,以ArcGIS为工具开发了凉山州泥石流短临预报应用系统。当有灾害性天气过程出现时,将启动预报系统,逢整点读取降水产品信息,实现1h滚动预报,预报时段为3h。系统可及时地为政府提供全州的泥石流预报信息,为减灾防灾决策提供技术支持。

In this paper, based on advanced detecting technology of Doppler weather radar, getting various kinds of rainfall productions from meteorological bureau directly, and using extension theory on the basis of fuzzy mathematics, the nested debris flow forecast models are set up for the research area of Liangshan region which are suffered from a lot of serious debris flow disaster. According to the different conditions of debris flow occurrence in this region, the value of rainfall is divided into several grades. In another words, according to the grades scope of rainfall combined index, the probability of debris flow occurrence is confirmed and the imminent and short-term debris flow rolling forecast system for Liangshan Region is designed and developed which is operated in rainy season. When disaster weather course is coming, the system would start, which could get rainfall productions hourly at the right beginning of every hour punctually, time sequence forecasts of debris flow are issued on 1-hourly changes, 24 times a day, for the next 3 hours. Rainfall data in the forecast system update very quickly, so does the result of debris flow forecast. The forecast is continuous rolling and without any gap, which can decrease the fail report of debris flow in a certain extent. The forecast system can provide the information of debris flow occurrence to the local government in time, to give decision supporting of debris flow disaster mitigation.