内蒙古大兴安岭东南部气候变化对作物产量的影响

Impact of Climate Change on the Crop Yields in Da Hinggan Mountains

利用大兴安岭东南部1971-2005年气温资料与玉米、大豆、小麦和马铃薯产量资料,分析了气候变暖对农业生产的可能影响,结果表明4种作物气候产量与各个气温因子的相关系数均为正值。由此可见气候变暖有利于该区各种作物产量的提高。气候变暖可使作物生长期延长8-15天,因此可以引种生长期为120-130天的高产品种,增加中、晚熟品种。气候变暖扩大了作物种植区域,作物的种植北界北推,范围扩大至49°45′N以南的地区,上界升高至海拔400 m。但是气候变暖也增大了干旱发生的机率,加重了干旱的程度,增加了农作物害虫对农田的危害。气候变暖使异常天气事件增加,对农业产生一些不可逆的影响,使农业生产的不稳定性加剧。

Using air temperature data and crop yield data of corn,soybean and potato during 1971 to 2005 in the southeast part of the Da Hinggan Mountains,the authors analyzed the possible influences of climate warming to agricultural production.Results indicate that correlation coefficients between climatic yield of the four crops and temperature factors were positive,namely,climate warming may enhance crop yield in the study area.Climate warming may lengthen the growing period of crops for 8—15 days,so high yield varieties with the growing period of 120—130 days,and mid and late varieties could be introduced to the study area.Climate warming may also enlarge planting areas of the crops,that is the northern boundary and altitudinal of crop planting may reach 49°45′N and 400 m,respectively.However,climate warming could also increase drought possibilities and degrees,and harms of pests.Furthermore,climate warming may increase extreme events of weather,which could cause nonreversible effects to agricultural production and the instability of agricultural production.