时域克里格方法在地表水水质预测中的应用

Application of Krige Method in Time Domain in Forecast of Surface Water Quality

给出了纯时间域中普通克里格方法(TOK)的基本形式和其变异函数的性质,再依据扎龙湿地5年水体中BOD、DO、COD质量浓度的观测数据,利用该方法对2005—2009年的变化趋势进行了预测,在满足最小方差的条件下,使估计是无偏的。结果表明,这5年内湿地水体中DO和BOD质量浓度变化趋势不明显,但COD质量浓度却明显上升,说明湿地的水质正在发生变化,要减少进入湿地的污水量,加强污水处理,这样才能防止水质的进一步恶化。

The authors studied the basic theories of statistics method of multivariate information in time domain and characters about variogram in the first. Based on the observation data of BOD,COD and DO from Zhalong wet land in recent five years,the method of multivariate information was used to predict the trend of the water quality in 2005 -- 2009. Under the condition of minimum variance, this kind of method could make the estimation unbiased. The result implied the changed trend of DO and BOD content in water was not obviously, but the COD content moved upward obviously, and water quality was changing. So it is necessary to reduce the quantity of foul water into wetland and strengthened to treat foul water in order to prevent water quality to be worsen.