世界体系的变迁与大国崛起的历史规律

The Changes of World System and the Historical Regularity in the Rising of Great Powers

通过宏观的长期的世界历史视角,吸收经济学、政治学、社会学、哲学和生物学关于进化的思想,分析世界体系经济、政治、社会、文化结构变迁进化的长周期过程,以及大国崛起的历史规律,可以发现,世界体系变迁并不是一个均衡点到另一个均衡点的一波又一波平稳的态势,而是表现为有规律地打破均衡,由不均衡到均衡再到新的不均衡的周期性进化。每个领导国家获取领导权的长周期都包括四个阶段:设计确立全球性的战略政策,建立合作性的联盟,进行重大决策性的竞争和实现国家的全球性领导权。国家力图主导制度创新和具有解决重大全球性问题的战略政策,是推动世界体系进化变迁的根本动力,而大国崛起的关键就是学习创新。

Adopting a long-term view from the world history and the evolutionary ideology embodied in econom- ics, politics, sociology, philosophy and biology, this paper makes an adequate analysis of the historical regularity in the long cycles of the rising of great powers by focusing on the evolutionary process of structural changes in the economic, political, social and cultural aspects of the world system. It is clarified that the changes of the world system are accomplished in an evolutionary cyclic fashion in which a balanced system is broken into an unbalanced one that in turn develops into a new balanced system rather than in the simple cyclic pattern of one balanced system being replaced by another. All the leading powers have achieved their leadership in long cycles through the following four stages： the establishment of strategic global policies, the construction of coalitions, the macro-decision of selection par excellence, and the execution of global leadership. The radical impetus for the changes in the world system is that great powers all spare no effort in institutional innovations and in formulating significant strategies for resolving global problems. Therefore, it is in the learning of how to make innovations that the secret of the rise of great power lies.