中国区域性耕地变化与粮食生产的关系研究--以东北地区为例

Correlation Analysis between Regional Cultivated Land Change and Grain Production Capacity—A Case Study in Northeast China

以东北地区为例,结合监测数据和农业统计数据,利用GIS技术分别开展耕地数量变化对粮播面积的影响分析、高中低产田内部各县粮食单产变化趋势分析、高中低产田内部耕地数量变化对粮食总产的影响以及粮食作物种植结构变化对粮食生产能力的影响评价与分析。结果表明:①东北地区耕地数量增加了188.8×104hm2,总体呈北增南减趋势;②粮播面积增加了162.67×104hm2,高产区的粮食单产多呈上升趋势,中产区的粮食单产稳中有升,低产区各县的粮食单产有增有减,但多数仍呈上升趋势;③高产田的粮食单产和低产田作物种植面积扩大促进了东北地区粮食总产的增加;④东北地区玉米生产进一步向吉林省集中,大豆、水稻、小麦向黑龙江集中,粮食生产的专业化、区域化趋势明显。

To research the changing patterns of current regional cultivated land and explore its impact on grain productivity is of great significance.Taking Northeast China as a study area,this paper analyzed the impact of the cultivated land change on grain sown area,per unit grain yield and total grain yield,and also the impact of the change of main crop planting structure on grain yield.The result shows： ⑴The cultivated land increased 188.8×10^4ha with a general trend of increase in the northern part and decrease in the southern part in view of the spatial distribution.⑵The grain sown area has increased 162.67×10^4ha.Per unit grain yield in most high-yield cultivated land presented an increase trend;per unit grain yield in mid-yield cultivated land presented a steady-going trend and furthermore with little increase in a few places;the changing trend of per unit grain yield in most low-yield cultivated land presented an increase trend.⑶The area of high-yield cultivated land,mid-yield cultivated land and low-yield cultivated land increased by 34.44×10^4ha,12.57×10^4ha and 141.83×10^4ha respectively,but their increase amount of grain yield was 305.04×10^4t,14.25×10^4t and 122.88×10^4t respectively.This shows the increase of both per unit grain yield in high-yield cultivated land and area of low-yield cultivated land promoted the increase of total grain yield in Northeast China.⑷The grain yield of four major crops in Northeast China presented different changing trends： the corn presented an ＂increase-decrease-increase＂ trend,the rice and wheat presented an ＂increase-decrease＂ trend and the bean yield increased continuously.The grain sown area of the four major crops presented a fluctuated changing trend： the corn presented an ＂increase-decrease-increase＂ trend,the bean sown area increased continuously,the rice sown area presented little increase and wheat presented an ＂increase-decrease＂ trend.In view of the regional difference,the corn production in Northeast China was further concentrated in Jilin province while that of bean,rice and wheat production further concentrated in Heilongjiang province.In a word,the grain production in Northeast China presented an obvious specialization and regionalization trend.