摘要
本文采用年龄移算法预测了我国2020年以前各年劳动力供给量,使用经济增长的就业弹性以及经济计量模型估计了2020年以前各年劳动力需求量。经过研究发现,我国未来五、六年内劳动力就业的巨大压力和劳动力供不应求的现象将同时存在,2016年以后劳动力供不应求的现象将更加突出。我国应该注重经济结构的调整和改变用人观念,以满足劳动者充分就业的要求。
The paper uses the age shift algorithm to estimate the labor supply before 2020 in China and uses the employment elasticity of economic growth and the econometric model to estimate the labor demand before 2020. It is shown the great pressure of employment and labor shortage will coexist in the next five or six years. After 2016 the phenomenon of labor shortage will become more prominent. It is suggested that China should focus on adjusting economic structure and changing employment ideality tomeet the requirements of full employment of labor force.
出处
《统计教育》
2008年第6期56-58,共3页
Statistical education
基金
成都信息工程学院科研基金资助(CRF200642)的阶段性成果
关键词
年龄移算法
劳动力就业压力
供不应求
age shift algorithm
the employment pressure
demand exceeds supply
