副热带高压与东亚季风指数的非线性数学模型的遗传算法参数优化

Parameter Optimization by GA of Nonlinear Mathematical Models for Subtropical High and East-Asia Summer Monsoon Characteristic Indexs

针对东亚夏季风环流演变与副热带高压活动极为复杂,动力模型难以准确建立的情况,提出用遗传算法从实际观测资料中反演重构副高指数与夏季风环流因子动力模型的方法,反演重构了东亚夏季风环流因子与副高形态指数的动力预报模型并进行了模型的预报试验。结果表明,遗传算法全局搜索和并行计算优势可客观准确和方便快捷地反演重构东亚夏季风环流因子与副高指数的动力模型,所建模型能对副高指数和夏季风环流的演变进行较为准确的预测,进而为东亚夏季风环流与副高等复杂天气指数的动力模型建立和预测提供了新的方法途径。

Due to the extreme complicacy of east-asia summer monsoon and subtropical high, their corresponding dynamic models are hardly accurately established. Therefore, an idea of retrieving and reconstructing the dynamic models of subtropical high and east-asia summer monsoon indexes by using Genetic Algorithm （GA） is presented, and its dynamic forecast model is retrieved, the corresponding forecast experiments have also made. The experiment results show that, for GA having the connotative advantages of global optimization and parallel calculation, the method of dynamic model reconstruction by GA can accurately describe and simulate the subtropical high and east-asia summer monsoon activity and make better forecast, which maybe a suitable and effectual route for describing and predicting such complicated weather systems as subtropical high and monsoon activity.