中国对东盟地区的贸易流量分析——基于引力模型的研究

Research on the Trade Flow of China to ASEAN——Based on Gravity Model

本文运用引力模型,检验2006年中国与前50大出口贸易伙伴和东盟国家之间的贸易流量及其决定因素,并通过不同区域组织之间的比较,重点观察中国与东盟国家之间的优惠贸易安排。检验结果发现,目前中国与东盟自由贸易区的优惠贸易安排效果还不明显,说明想要建立的中国—东盟自由贸易区还有很长的路要走。

By means of the Gravity Model, this paper analyzes the export volume of China to thc top 50 tradc partners and ASEA in 2006. Comparing with other regional organizations, the Chinese-ASEAN Frec Trade Area （CAFTA） is the main part of this analysis. The results indicate that, until now the trade promotivc cffcct of CAFTA has not come out. Therefore, by calculating the Export Potential and Export Similarity Indcx, the author givc some reasons of this special situation. The export to ASEAN has a large space of incrcasc and there is still a long way to go before the completion of CAFTA.