基于引力模型的中美农产品贸易边境效应研究

The Border Effect of Sino-US Agricultural Trade Based on Gravity Model

针对中美两国在农产品贸易上的新变化,应用引力模型的派生模型——边境效应引力模型对中美两国农产品贸易的流量和流向进行理论和实证研究。首先介绍了边境效应引力模型基本模型的推导过程,并引入了调整模型。然后采用1987至2005年其中5年的截面数据进行计算,结果发现:中美农产品贸易的边境效应显著存在,且呈逐年下降趋势;两国之间的农产品贸易边境效应存在流向和区域上的差异;距离的平方并不影响模型的可靠性。

Based on the great change in discrepancies of Sino-US agricultural trade, this paper studies the trade flows and directions between China and US with border effect gravity model. First, the border effect Gravity Model is derived and adjusted. Applying 5 years＇ panel data from 1987 to 2005, empirical results indicate that border effect does exist in this regard and is significant with the tendency to drop by year, border effects vary greatly from the direction of international trade and across regions. Whether the distance variable is squared, it does not influence the final result of the model.