三峡水库塌岸预测评价系统开发

DEVELOPMENT OF PREDICTION AND APPRAISE SYSTEM OF BANK COLLAPSE IN THE THREE GORGES

三峡水库蓄水后,由于库岸内外动力地质条件的变化,必然引起塌岸。目前的塌岸预测方法比较多,但都有各自的适用范围,不能很好的满足三峡这种地质条件比较复杂的库岸的塌岸预测。本文开发了三峡水库塌岸预测评价系统,集成了多种塌岸预测方法。利用该系统可以选择1种或多种塌岸预测方法进行塌岸预测,并可以对同一岸坡采用不同方法的预测结果进行分析,得出最终塌岸宽度。通过实例验证,该系统能较好的解决各方法预测结果的差异性,给出的最终塌岸预测结果更趋于合理。

After water being stored by Three Gorges Reservoir, an inevitable consequence caused by the changes of interior and exterior geologic conditions of the river bank is the bank collapse. There are many methods of prediction of bank collapse which are practical in some occasions, but they are all not suitable for Three Gorges Reservoir because of its more complicated geologic conditions. A package of forecasting and evaluating of the river bank collapse is developed in this article. This package collects many methods of prediction of the river bank collapse. Based on this package, not only one or more methods can be used simultaneously to predict the bank collapse, but also the results of the different methods being applied can be analyzed. An ultimate result of the analysis is that it can offer a more accurate width of bank collapse. By practices, it is showed that the prediction differences of the different methods can be compromised by resulting a more reasonable conclusion.