我国通货膨胀的原因辨析:1978-2007——一种源自Grange检验的否定

An Explanation of China's Inflation from 1978～2007——A negation to the Grange Causality Test

基于1978-2007年的数据,本文运用Grange检验法对我国改革开放三十年来通货膨胀的共性原因进行了辨析。通过对有关文献提出的相关变量进行检验发现:各个特殊阶段通货膨胀的影响因素并不是三十年来通货膨胀的共性原因;而适度的通货膨胀却对经济增长、进出口增加、固定资产投资总额以及平均工资的增长均具有正向促进作用,表明适度的通货膨胀在我国改革开放中是"非中性"的。

Based on the data of China from 1978 to 2007, the paper discriminated the common cause of inflation since the reform and open-door to the rest of the world with Grange Causality Test. After testing the variables in the references existed, we came to the conclusions that factors affected the inflation at special stages were not the common causes in the past thirty years, and that the moderate inflation promoted the increase of economy, imports and exports of goods and services, total amount of investment in fixed assets and average wages which shown that moderate inflation was not neural in the course of China＇s reform and open-door policy operation.