灾难事件后继风险决策

How has the Low-probability/higy-consequence Event Influenced Risky Decision Making?

对小概率/高风险的灾难事件的后继风险决策进行探讨,着重在决策的认知神经经济模型框架下,讨论灾难事件后继风险决策的影响因素。灾难事件后人们的风险觉知、信念和假定、经验等认知因素以及灾后情绪因素对于决策分别有不同的影响;人们灾后决策的特点为决策更多直觉化而较少运用理性分析;灾难后继决策有随时间变化的趋势,灾难事件后人们为寻求安全感而出现"损失偏差"(loss bias),该偏差在"获得"和"损失"两种条件下的影响是不同的。灾后风险决策的内在机制或可用思维和决策的双加工系统(dual-process)模型来解释。最后展望了灾难事件后继决策进一步的研究方向。

How the risky decision is made after a low-probability disaster with high-consequences was discussed, which aimed to find out the factors influencing post-disaster decision making within the framework of Cognitive Neuroeconomic Model. Study shows that the emotional factors and cognitive factors including beliefs, assumptions, risk perceptions and past experience have difference influence on the decision making of post-disaster, which is more based on intuition and less on theoretical analysis. Meanwhile, the decision making of post-disaster varies with the time. To seek sense of security after disaster, loss bias will occur to people, which has different influence under the conditions of ＂gain＂ and ＂loss＂. The intrinsic mechanism of risky decision making after disaster can be explained by the dual-process model. Finally, the research trend of decision making after disaster was prospected.