独生子女规模估算及其对政府奖励性支出的影响--以苏州市为例

Estimate of the Single-Child Population Size and Its Impacts on Government′s Awarding Budgets to the Single-Child Family: A Case of Suzhou

本文将抽样调查资料与人口普查资料相结合,利用多种统计方法、多方案推算苏州市独生子女存量规模以及未来各年数量,并据此测算了未来各年政府可能的配套奖励性支出。研究结果表明:独生子女大规模进入婚育年龄将势必引起政策生育率的上升,未来各年政府用于独生子女家庭及其父母养老等计划生育政策奖励性支出将逐年增加,财政负担日益加重。建议政府对计划生育配套奖励政策适时进行调整,由现行的提供物质奖励向提供优质服务和社会保障转变。

This paper, based on the data from sample survey and national census, designs a comprehensive approach to estimate the current population size of single child in Suzhou and prospect its future changes in the coming years. Accordingly the police pensions from government to the single-child family are calculated. It shows that the fertility rate is to rise inevitably with the increasing population of single-child reaching the marriage age, the related police pensions from government to the slngle-child family in the near future are expected to increasingly rise, which seems to be a heavy financial burdens on government. The paper suggests it is necessary to revise the related pension policy from the existing financial support to social security services.