海洋环境要素极值的加权融合概率模型

A Weighted-fusion Probabilistic Model for the Extreme Value of the Offshore Environmental Factor

如何有效利用海洋环境要素多种来源资料建立其极值概率模型,是实际工程中常遇到的问题。根据海洋环境要素母体子样与其极值子样之间的关系,讨论了现场子样的确定,并推导了其一致性检验方法和计算公式。结合前人对于通过一致性检验的数据进行深入分析建立了数据的可信度概念及其计算方法的研究结果,建立了先验环境要素资料的可信度计算方法。在此基础上结合加权融合方法,建立了海洋环境要素极值的加权融合概率模型,从而使可用信息得到充分利用。通过模拟算例和实际数据验证了一致性检验方法和加权融合概率模型的合理性。

It is frequently found how multi-source data of the offshore environmental factor are applied sufficiently in the course of establishing its extreme probabilistic model in actual engineering. Based on the relationship between parent and extreme value sample of the offshore environmental factor, the consistency test method for the parent sample is established, combined with the productions in reference [2, 4], and the calculating method for its credibility is obtained. Therefore a weighted-fusion probabilistic model for the extreme value of offshore environmental factor is developed, combined with weighted-fusion theory. Ensamples by Monte-Carlo simulated samples and real data validate the consistency test method and weight-fusion probabilistic model.