期刊文献+

英语文字的概率表达 被引量:2

THE EXPRESSION OF ENGLISH VERBAL PROBABILITY:A LIERATURE
下载PDF
导出
摘要 对于事件发生的概率表征形式主要可分为数字表征和文字表征.本文探讨了英文文字概率表达研究的意义和兴起,并回顾了英语文字概率表达在这半个世纪里的研究内容、研究方法及研究发现:(1)文字概率的数值转化,(2)文字概率表征的语义信息和(3)概率表征的使用偏好.最后探讨了汉语文字概率表达的意义和前景. There were two ways to express uncertainty: numerical probabilities and verbal probabilities. The present article discussed the importance and value of the research on English verbal probabilities, and reviewed the emergence and decelop-ment of this area during the peat half century, which included(1) the numerical translation of verbal probabilistic expression, (2)the semantic information within verbal rpobabilistic phrases, and (3) preference to verbal or numerical probabilities. The theoretical and practical implications of these findings to the study of Chinese verbal probabilities were discussed.
作者 许洁虹 李纾
出处 《经济数学》 2008年第1期101-110,F0003,共11页 Journal of Quantitative Economics
基金 中国科学院"百人计划"及国家自然科学基金(70671099) 中国科学院知识创新工程重要方向项目(KSCX2-yw-R-130)
关键词 文字概率 数字概率 主观概率 行为决策 verbal probability, numerical probability, subjective probability, decision making
  • 相关文献

参考文献34

  • 1Gigerenzer, G., Hertwig, R., and den Broek, E., Fasolo, K.V.A 30% chance of rain tomorrow: How does the public understand probabilistic weather forcasts? [ J ] Risk Analysis, 2005,25: 623 - 629.
  • 2M·克莱因.数学:确定性的丧失[M].湖南:湖南科学技术出版社,2004.
  • 3Budescu, D.V., Weinberg, S., Wallsten, T.S. Decisions based on numerically and verbally expressed uncertainties[J]. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Perception and Performance, 1988,14:281 - 294.
  • 4Zimmer, A.C. A model for the interpretation of verbal predictions[ J]. International Journal of Man - Machine Studies, 1984,20:121 - 134.
  • 5Teigen, K.H. When are low - probability events judged to be ' probable' .9 Effects of outcome - set characteristics on verbal probability estimates[J]. Acta Psychologica, 1988,68:157- 174.
  • 6Lichtenstein, S., Newman, J.R. Empirical scaling of common verbal pjrases associated with numerical probabilities [ J]. Psychonomic Science, 1967,9:563 - 564.
  • 7Beyth - Marom, R. How probable is probable? A numerical translation of verbal probability expressions[J]. Journal of Forecasting, 1982,1 : 257 - 269.
  • 8Tavana, M., Kennedy, D.T., Mohebbi, B. An applied study using the analytic hierarchy process to ranslate common verbal phrases to numerical probabilities[J]. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 1997,10:133 - 150.
  • 9Budescu, D.V., Wallsten, T.S. Consistency in inerpretation of probabilistic phrases[J]. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes ,1985,36:391-405.
  • 10Brun, W., Teigen, K.H. Verbal probabilities: ambiguous, context-dependent, or both? [J] Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 1988,41:390 - 404.

同被引文献46

  • 1李晓明,傅小兰,宇明.信息的外部表征方式对贝叶斯推理成绩的影响[J].人类工效学,2004,10(3):3-6. 被引量:8
  • 2徐泽水.基于语言标度中术语指标的多属性群决策法[J].系统工程学报,2005,20(1):84-88. 被引量:66
  • 3高阳,周向红.一种基于不同语言标度的语言信息评价方法[J].统计与决策,2006,22(18):60-61. 被引量:2
  • 4Bonnefon, J. F., Villejoubert, G. Communicating Likelihood and Managing Face: Can We Say It Is Probable When We Know It to Be Certain?[R]. Proceedings of the 27th Annual Conference of the Cognitive Science Society, 2005.
  • 5Brun, W., Teigen, K. H. Verbal Probabilities: Ambiguous, Context-Dependent, or Both?[J]. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 1988,41:390-404.
  • 6Erev, I., Cohen, B. L. Verbal versus Numerical Probabilities: Efficiency, Biases, and the Preference Paradox [J]. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 1990,45(1): 1-18.
  • 7Wallsten, T. S., Budescu, D. V., Zwick, R., Kemp, S. M. Preferences and Reasons for Communicating Probabilistic Information in Verbal or Numerical Terms[J]. Bulletin of the Psychonomic Society, 1993,31 (2): 135-138.
  • 8Budescu, D. V., Wallsten, T. S. Processing Linguistic Probabilities: General Principles and Empirical Evidence[J]. The Psychology of Learning and Motivation, 1995,32:275-318.
  • 9Li, S., Chen, W. W., Yu, Y. The Reason for Asian Overconfidence[J]. Journal of Psychology, 2006,140(6):615-618.
  • 10Yates, J. F., Lee, J. W., Shinotsuka, H. Cross-National Variation in Probability Judgment[R]. Annual Meeting of the Psychonomic Society, St. Louis, 1992.

引证文献2

二级引证文献2

相关作者

内容加载中请稍等...

相关机构

内容加载中请稍等...

相关主题

内容加载中请稍等...

浏览历史

内容加载中请稍等...
;
使用帮助 返回顶部