钻井风险因素综合评价方法及模型建立

INTEGRATED DRILLING RISK EVALUATION METHOD AND MODEL ESTABLISHMENT

钻井工程存在大量不确定性,具有高投入、高风险的特点。若能提前预测潜在的风险及其发生状态,在决策钻井方案之前将各种风险因素考虑进去,根据现场实际情况不断修正方案,则可将风险发生的可能性控制在最低程度。传统的评价方法不能很好地定量评估所存在的风险。为此,在进行钻井风险识别的基础上,总结出钻井风险来源于设计、地质和工程3个方面,建立了钻井风险因素的递阶层次结构;从钻井过程的特点出发,提出采用AHP与模糊综合评价相结合的方法对钻井风险因素进行定量评价,并建立了钻井风险综合评价模型。该模型能客观、定量化地评价钻井风险。

Drilling engineering has great uncertainty and it always involves huge investment and high risks. If the potential risks can be predicted in advance, various risk factors can be taken into consideration in the drilling proposal and the proposal can be revised in accordance with the on-site situation, the risk can be minimized. The traditional appraisal method can not well evaluate the risk quantificationally. Based on the drilling risk identification, it concluded that the drilling risks lie in three aspects of design, geology and engineering. The hierarchical structure of drilling risk factors was established. The drilling risk factors were appraised quantificationally with AHP and overall fuzzing evaluation based on the drilling features. In addition, the integrated drilling risk evaluation model was established, which can evaluate the drilling risk objectively and quantificationally.