欧元区东扩:基于中东欧国家视角的解析

The Eastward Expansion of the Euro Area: Analysis in Terms of the View of Middle-Eastern European Countries

在欧元区东扩进程中,《马斯特里赫特条约》规定的"趋同标准"是研判中东欧国家进入欧元区的门槛。欧盟与中东欧国家间的入盟协议,赋予成员在适当时候引入欧元的"制约性义务"。在先验"进入意愿"条件下,中东欧国家因经济规模、发展速度及社会医疗、养老保险制度等方面差异,分化出目标明确、层次鲜明的三级梯队。"第一梯队"经济转轨时期的巴拉萨—萨缪尔逊效应诱发"结构性通货膨胀",引入欧元时间可能在2009—2010年间;"第二梯队"公共财政面临巨大压力,却有可能因财政标准软约束而提前进入欧元区;"第三梯队"与达标要求相差甚大,将是新成员中最后引入欧元的国家。

Under the prior willingness to joining the Euro area,the middle-eastern European countries are divided into three echelons due to different economic scales,development speeds,and differences in social,medical and retirement institutions.The first echelon will face structural inflation because of the Balassa-Samuelson effect in the period of economic transference.They will probably use Euro in 2009 or 2010.Though facing with large pressure,the second echelon may enter the Euro area earlier than planned because of soft restriction of financial criteria.The third echelon is far from reaching the standard,so they will be the last to use Euro among all the members.