摘要
为了提高负荷预测的准确性,引入了优化组合预测模型,使用进化规划算法以误差最小为目标优选组合预测各模型的权重系数,从而将几个电力负荷预测模型有机地结合起来,通过综合各个预测模型的优点,得出更为准确的结果。采用所提方法对某地区实际电网的供电量的历史数据进行了负荷预测,得到了满意的结果。
To improve the result s of load forecast, the combined forecasting method is introduced in this paper, Evolutionary programming which is based on minimizing the error is used to optimized the weights of several forecast methods. Combing the advantages of several forecasting methods, the proposed method can be more accurate. The historical load data of the power networks have been analyzed by this methed, and the satisfactory results are obtained.
出处
《华中电力》
2008年第3期21-23,共3页
Central China Electric Power
基金
河南省普通高等学校人文社会科学重点研究基地资助项目(XZ2006201)
关键词
负荷预测
组合优化
进化规划
load forecast
combined forecasting
evolutionary programming
