灰色理论在万安水库移民收入分析中的运用

Application of gray theory in relocatee's incoming analysis in Wanan reservoir area

应用灰色系统理论,通过对万安水库移民收入现状的灰色关联度分析,得出移民收入影响因子的定量结果。结果表明,各因子对移民收入的影响大小依次为:耕地面积,务农人数,教育水平,外出打工率,农产品生产价格指数,生产消费支出,粮食产量,非农收入。基于此,讨论了产生这种结果的原因,并提出促进移民增收的相关建议,同时对万安水库移民安置区剩余的后扶期间的可持续发展进行预测,得出其呈一种良性发展趋势的结论。

Through gray correlation analysis of relocate's incoming in Wanan reservoir area by gray theory,the quantitative factors influencing relocate's incoming are obtained.The analysis results demonstrate that the influencing factors on relocate's incoming are in following order: farmland area,manpower,education level,go-out working rate,agriculture product price index,production and consumption expenditure,food output,non-agriculture incoming.The causes of this result are analyzed and some correlative suggestions to raise the farmer's incoming are put forward and sustainable development in Wanan reservoir area in remained post-support period is forecasted and it is concluded that the economy in the reservoir area will be a positive development tendency.