多层次模糊数学在煤层气开发潜力评价中的应用

Application of multi-layered fuzzy mathematics in assessment of exploitation potential of coalbed methane resources

对影响煤层气勘探开发潜力的各种因素进行了综合研究,确定了煤层气勘探开发潜力评价的4个二级指标(含气丰度、封盖性能、开采条件和产气性能)及相应的三级指标。采用模糊数学方法对各级因素指标赋予了权重,建立了用于煤层气勘探开发潜力评价的多层次模糊数学评判模型。利用该模型,对川南盆地群煤层气资源条件较好的古叙、松藻、筠连和芙蓉4个无烟煤矿区的煤层气开发潜力进行了评价,认为松藻矿区是川南盆地煤层气勘探开发的最佳试验区。建立的评价体系,可以作为高煤阶煤层气资源开发潜力评价的参考体系。

The influencing factors of the coalbed methane （CBM） exploitation potential were investigated in the paper. Four second-order indices, including gas content, sealing capacity, exploitation conditions and production capacity, and their corresponding third-order indices for assessment of the CBM exploitation potential were established. The weight values of all second and third-order indices were determined by the fuzzy mathematics and the multi-layered fuzzy mathematics model for assessment of the CBM exploitation potential was set up. As a case study, the multi-layered fuzzy mathematics model was applied to the assessment of the CBM exploitation potential in the four anthracite coal mining areas with better coalbed methane resource conditions in southern Sichuan Basin, including Gulin-Xuyong, Songzao, Junlian and Furong coal mines. The results showed that the Songzao mining area has the best potential for CBM exploitation among these four mining areas, and should be the most favorable testing area of the CBM exploitation. The assessment system established in the paper can be regarded as a reference model in CBM exploitation potential assessment of the high-rank coals.