飞行器设计中不确定性因素分析

Analysis of Uncertainty in Aircraft Design

在基于建模和仿真的飞行器设计过程中,由于客观存在的不确定性,导致了模型预测结果与真实情况的不一致。在对不确定性的定义进行阐述的基础上,通过对飞行器设计中不确定性因素存在根源和分类的分析,研究了处理飞行器设计中不确定性问题的几种主要方法——筛选试验法、基于多变量概率理论的采样方法、最差情形法、综合评判法以及变复杂度法。通过算例分析表明,在实际设计问题中应将上述几种方法合理地综合,从而获得设计的最满意解。

In aircraft designing process based on modeling and simulation, there exists a vast amount of uncertainty, which causes modeling predictions to differ from reality. Based on the expatiation on the defining of uncertainty, which usually occurs in the whole process of aircraft design, the roots and species of uncertainty were analyzed. Furthermore, some primary methods which may solve uncertainty problems, for instance, the screening test method, sampling method based on multivariate probability theory, the worst case method, integrated judgment method and variable fidelity method, were investigated. In the end of this paper, using an analyzing example, we drew the conclusion that combining these methods together could obtain the optimum solution in aircraft designing practice.