引入非财务因素的中小企业信用风险预警模型实证研究

Credit Risk Pre-warning Model Involves Non-financial Factors for Small-medial Enterprise

相当多的研究已证明财务因素能有效预测借款人违约风险,而非财务变量的预警能力仍不明确。为检验非财务变量预警能力,本文建立了三个假设,利用调查数据,建立了Logistic回归模型检验假设,结果表明:1.财务变量提前预警效果明显;2.加入非财务变量后,模型预警能力得到显著提高;3.预警模型分类效果显著优于随机分类。

While considerable research has proven the suitability of financial factors to predict borrower default, the role of non-financial factors remains ambiguous. To test the ability of non- financial in pre-warning model, this paper firstly established three testable hypothesizes. Secondly, using the data from a survey, this paper established models of Logistic. The result shows that firstly the financial factors have obviously results in pre-warning model. After non-financial factors are introduced, the ability of pre-warning of the model is obviously improved. Thirdly, the classification of the model has a superior result than random method.