山东省城乡居民恶性肿瘤死亡水平的变化及其趋势预测

Changes and Trend Prediction of Malignant Tumors Mortality in Shandong Province

对山东省城乡居民１９８２～１９９６年恶性肿瘤死亡率进行了动态分析，并根据时间序列变化趋势，建立灰色系统理论模型，对山东省城乡１９９７～２００６年恶性肿瘤流行趋势做出预测。分析结果表明，山东省城、乡居民１９８２～２００６年恶性肿瘤世界人口年龄标化死亡率将分别从１６６．３０／１０万、１３７．５／１０万上升至２０３．６７／１０万、１８２．２６／１０万。肺癌、肠癌、女性乳腺癌死亡率呈大幅度持续升高，胃癌、宫颈癌缓慢下降，食管癌死亡率城市降低，农村则呈升高之势。

In this paper,malignant tumors (MT) mortality in cities and rural areas of Shandong province from 1982 to 1996 were analyzed dynamicaily. A theoretical model of gred system was established based on the timeseries changes in molignant tumors mortality to predict its trend by the years of 1997～2006 in ShaNdong.The resultS showedMT mortAlity from 1982 to 2006 will increase reSpectively from 16630/100000 to 20367/100000 among the residents oF cities and 13750/100000 to 18226/100000 among the rural areas in Shandong. Mortality of lung, intestinal and bilateral brease cancers will increase rapidly, but stomach and cervical cancer will decline.EsophaGeal cancer will decline in the cities but increase in the rural areas.