基于3S技术的晋江市生态环境动态变化及预测研究

The Dynamic Change and Prediction of the Eco-environment in Jinjiang City Based on 3S Technology

对晋江市1998和2001年两个时段遥感影像进行解译,得到两个不同时段的生态环境类型图.通过构建度量生态环境变化的时空分析模型,分析了晋江市生态环境各类型的数量、分布特征和动态变化规律.研究结果表明:晋江市城镇居民点和农村居民点这两个生态环境类型在监测期内增速迅猛;而旱地生态环境类型在监测期内急剧减少.采用马尔可夫过程模型进行预测,结果显示晋江市的生态环境格局处于变化状态,旱地、水田生态环境将逐渐减少,人工建筑生态环境特别是城镇居民点生态环境将逐渐增加,而且这种变化将持续很长时间,但最后可达到一个相对稳定状态,这预示着晋江市最终将形成城乡经济一体化的新生态环境格局.

By interpreting the multi-temporal remote sensing images of Jinjiang City in the year of 1988 and 2001 ,two maps of eco-envimnment types were obtained in these two different periods of time. Based on spatial and temporal analysis model in measuring the rate of ecological environment change, the quantity of eco - environment types, characteristics of their distribution and the rule of their dynamic change were analyzed. The results indicated that the two eco-envimnment types which were urban and rural residential area increased greatly, while the dry land decreased sharply. Applying Markov＇s Course model to predict the dynamic change of eco-envimnment, the results indicate that eco- environment of Jinjiang City is in a continual change state. Dry land and paddy field will reduce gradually, while artificial buildings especially urban residential area will increase gradually. And this type of change will continue for a long time before it reaches a relatively stable state eventually. This also suggests that Jinjiang will form its own new eco-envimnment pattern with integration of urban and rural economy in future.